8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jun 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/08/2005

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Main Features
About this Release

JUNE KEY FIGURES

		Jun 05	May 05 to Jun 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 037.6	0.5
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 163.3	1.3

		Jun Qtr 05	Mar Qtr 05 to Jun Qtr 05
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	50 337.2	0.4
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	50 354.6	0.2

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms—Trend estimates

JUNE KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in June 2005. This follows revised increases of 0.4% in both May and April 2005.
In June 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate in Western Australia (+0.9%), Victoria (+0.7%), Queensland (+0.4%), the Australian Capital Territory (+0.4%) and New South Wales (+0.3%). The biggest decline was in Tasmania (-0.2%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 1.3% in June 2005. This follows an increase of 1.0% in May 2005 and a decrease of 0.4% in April 2005.
All states had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate in June 2005. Western Australia (+2.2%), New South Wales (+1.8%), Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory (both +1.0%) had the largest increases.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 0.8% in June 2005 compared with May 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 2.5%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 1.5%.
Australian turnover increased by 3.7% in June 2005 compared with June 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.3%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 1.6%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover increased by 0.4% in the June quarter 2005. This follows an increase of 0.3% in the March quarter 2005. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 0.2% in the June quarter 2005.

NOTES

REVISIONS

For December 2003 to June 2004 inclusive and October 2004, revisions have been made to Household good retailing for all states. These revisions are a result of the correction of provider errors. For December 2004, a revision has been made to Household good retailing for Victoria with the correction of a data error.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue. A new base year, 2003-04, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2003-04, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for June 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16 453.4	127.7
Change from preceding month ($m)	127.2	37.8
% change from preceding month (%)	0.8	0.2

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraph 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate growth in the trend for three months. Food retailing, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate to strong growth in each of these months.

FOOD RETAILING

There have been five months of moderate trend growth. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least four months of moderate to strong growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

After three months decline in the trend estimate, there was weak growth in June 2005. Victoria and South Australia have had a decline in the trend for at least three months, while Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least moderate growth for five and three months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

After five months of moderate growth there was weak growth in the trend in June 2005. South Australia has had no change or a decline in the trend estimate for 11 months. In contrast, Queensland and Western Australia have had strong trend growth for at least five months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate growth in the trend for three months, with four months of strong growth in Victoria and 14 months of moderate or strong growth in New South Wales. Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

After two months of strong growth there has been moderate trend growth for four months. Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania have had at least five months of moderate to strong growth, while New South Wales and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least five months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate has been in decline for nine months. New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia have had a decline in the trend for 12, eight and six months respectively.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for 11 months. Over the last three months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth for three months. All states, except Tasmania and the two Territories, have had strong trend growth for two or more months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been nine months of weak trend growth. Hospitality and services has had two months of strong growth. Household good retailing has had six months of moderate growth while Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least five months.

VICTORIA

There has been moderate trend growth for five months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had four, five and two months of strong growth respectively. In contrast, Department stores has had a decline in the trend estimate for four months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been weak or moderate growth in the trend for six months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate to strong growth for at least six months. Over the last eight months Department stores, Household good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend for six or more of these months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for four months. Department stores, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least five months. In contrast, Hospitality and services has had four months of strong growth.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been strong growth in the trend for three months. Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth for at least three months, with Recreational good retailing having had strong growth for the past year.

TASMANIA

After two months of weak growth, there has been a decline in the trend estimate for three months. Hospitality and services has had a decline in the trend estimate for four months. After two months of no change in the trend estimate, Food retailing and Household good retailing had a decline in June 2005.